4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 13

Washington Commanders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 19-D.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.27 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP