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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 36

Washington Commanders 13 – Indianapolis Colts 30

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (7-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP