4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 11

Washington Commanders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 19-D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model