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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 40

Washington Commanders 13 – Indianapolis Colts 30

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 6-D.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (7-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.67 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model