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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.86 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP