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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 26

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 3-S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.05 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP