Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 84

Washington Commanders 13 – Indianapolis Colts 20

(1:43) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to IND 48, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.03 EP
58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model