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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 56

Washington Commanders 6 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to IND 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model