Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 73

Washington Commanders 6 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(12:45) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to IND 39, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-C.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model