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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 44 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 45-K.Chaisson). WAS-2-A.Robertson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model