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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP