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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 6 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to IND 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP