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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model