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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 10 – Minnesota Vikings 15

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 48-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-82-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.87 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model