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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 9, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP