Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

(14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model