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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 23

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model