Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 48-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-0-O.Gordon. MIA-35-R.Taylor was injured during the play. The penalty was assisted by replay.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.48 EP
61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model