4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP