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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 48-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price to MIN 18 for 3 yards (35-R.Taylor; 32-J.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model