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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 29

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model