Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 48-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-46-T.Addington. ** Injury Update: MIA-42-J.Woodard has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model