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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model