Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
How It Works → · How the go/kick/punt math works →
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Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%
(11:15) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(9:26) (No Huddle) 9-J.McCarthy FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 36, and recovers at MIN 36. 9-J.McCarthy to MIN 36 for no gain (55-K.Elliss).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%
(6:51) 39-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:42) 17-R.Wright punts 59 yards to ATL 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%
(7:08) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 13, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price to MIN 13 for no gain (28-M.Ford).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%
(:28) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 64%
(14:11) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to ATL 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 96%
(6:20) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(4:05) 9-J.McCarthy up the middle to MIN 41 for 1 yard (90-D.Onyemata).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:35) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to ATL 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price to MIN 48 for 6 yards (23-D.Hellams; 42-J.Woods).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%
(11:21) 39-J.Romo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EPp(convert) 74%
(9:47) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to ATL 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 88 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-28-M.Ford at MIN 44.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(13:37) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 19 for 9 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball; 51-F.Mauigoa).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 88%
(10:25) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right tackle to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (11-J.Johnson; 51-F.Mauigoa).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%
(5:04) 15-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(2:41) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 74%
(14:06) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(11:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 27 for 6 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball; 26-I.Oliver).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 78%
(4:25) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 39%
(:55) 16-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to NYJ 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-I.Williams. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%
(:17) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%
(9:04) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 74%
(7:04) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 21 for no gain (37-Q.Stiggers).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74% p(FG) 52%
(3:14) 17-J.Allen right end to NYJ 36 for 7 yards (44-J.Sherwood). PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 36.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(14:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 39 for 7 yards (26-I.Oliver).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:10) 16-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NYJ 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 28%
(9:48) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 82-A.Smith to BUF 45 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 28%
(8:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(6:50) 16-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 46 for 11 yards (41-R.Gilliam; 42-D.Williams).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 39%
(6:03) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 32-I.Davis to BUF 42 for 6 yards (98-T.Sanders).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 5 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%
(3:30) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(5:22) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%
(:53) 10-R.Fitzgerald 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:13) 12-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to CAR 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 24 for 12 yards (36-K.Crawford).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 50%
(7:30) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-53-C.Cherelus.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%
(2:00) 38-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:04) 6-S.Martin punts 60 yards to ARI 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-G.Dortch to CAR 45 for 29 yards (82-T.Tremble).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(6:30) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ARI 42 for 14 yards (34-J.Thompson; 0-W.Johnson).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 35%
(14:15) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to CAR 49 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(5:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 86 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(4:44) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to CAR 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-36-K.Crawford.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 70 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 30%
(3:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to ARI 44 for 26 yards (34-J.Thompson) [25-Z.Collins].
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Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 38 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 67%
(:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at ARI 46 for -8 yards (93-C.Campbell).
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Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 37%
(6:59) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to CHI 10, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 64%
(5:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to DET 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to 50 for 16 yards (36-J.Owens; 33-J.Jones).
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Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:51) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CHI 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 28 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(13:19) 18-C.Williams up the middle to CHI 37 for no gain (55-D.Barnes). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%
(12:02) 59-G.Manu, 65-K.Eguakun and 95-P.O'Connor reported in as eligible. 39-J.Bates 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:52) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to DET 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 24 for 3 yards (39-J.Blackwell).
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Q3 DET 4th & 14 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%
(10:43) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(7:45) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus (91-T.Williams, 6-T.Arnold).
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Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%
(8:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(6:10) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to DET 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 29 for no gain (12-D.Duvernay).
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Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 67 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(4:13) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to CHI 5, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 15 for 10 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(11:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(7:51) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to BAL 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to CLE 49 for 23 yards (5-R.Jenkins).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%
(3:10) 33-T.Loop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 14 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-I.Bond to CLE 28 for no gain (38-K.Martin).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by BAL-21-S.Kane at CLE 29. 21-S.Kane to CLE 24 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%
(8:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to BAL 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-9-G.Delpit.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 57%
(6:56) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(3:53) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 4, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 91Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 54%
(2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 16-I.Bond.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%
(:33) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(:10) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(12:29) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 99%
(10:13) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 81-D.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%
(5:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 19-C.Tillman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 33Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%
(8:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 40 for -7 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], RECOVERED by BAL-0-R.Smith at BAL 37. 0-R.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 64Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EPp(convert) 31%
(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy (27-T.Tampa).
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Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(11:54) 3-S.Shrader 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(4:22) 3-S.Shrader 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 55%
(2:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to IND 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould to IND 15 for 4 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 50-G.Wallow).
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Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%
(7:32) (Shotgun) 84-T.Warren left tackle to 50 for no gain (92-D.Tillman).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:29) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to IND 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould to IND 22 for 8 yards (26-D.Key). PENALTY on IND-32-D.Scott, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at IND 14.
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Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%
(5:46) 3-S.Shrader 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 50%
(2:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to IND 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 37%
(13:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Warren [52-J.Elliss].
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Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(8:37) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 24 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%
(3:19) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for 15 yards (26-T.Anderson; 50-S.Heyward).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(8:05) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 13 for 4 yards (25-T.Brooks). ** Injury Update: JAX-22-J.Jones has returned to the game.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%
(3:32) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%
(1:39) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 73%
(9:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones to CIN 23 for 11 yards (80-Q.Morris).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(11:47) 39-C.Little 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(10:54) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-38-D.Ivey.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 42%
(6:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 7 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(3:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 7-B.Thomas.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 85 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(2:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 28 for 13 yards (12-T.Hunter).
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%
(13:47) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 17 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%
(9:07) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:06) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 16, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(5:45) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 28 for 7 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%
(9:58) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(8:14) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 11, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:42) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to LAC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 82%
(10:24) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LV 5 for 25 yards (22-E.Stokes, 52-E.Roberts).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(7:33) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%
(11:19) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 37%
(8:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 45, recovered by LAC-12-D.Davis at LAC 44. 12-D.Davis to LAC 44 for no gain (36-K.Kelly).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 74 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(4:36) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to LV 18, Center-41-R.Lovato. 1-T.Tucker to LV 33 for 15 yards (28-H.Haskins).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 60 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -11 yards (0-D.Henley).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 66 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 42%
(3:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:13) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-X.Smith to LA 28 for 14 yards (84-G.Helm).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 47%
(8:48) 12-P.Nacua left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(6:45) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to LA 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 56%
(3:13) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%
(15:00) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end ran ob at LA 47 for 3 yards (4-A.Witherspoon).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%
(11:26) 6-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%
(7:28) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%
(4:37) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to LA 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-B.Oliver.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(3:23) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to TEN 43, Center-47-A.Ward. 17-C.Dike for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at LA 41.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%
(9:33) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 62%
(3:37) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(:11) 3-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to LA 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%
(12:07) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 17-C.Dike to TEN 27 for 21 yards (56-S.Dolac).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(9:16) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to LA 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for no gain (80-B.Oliver).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 17 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%
(2:44) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 51%
(11:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 8-S.Diggs to MIA 33 for 10 yards (15-Ja.Phillips; 9-I.Melifonwu).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(8:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to NE 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-M.Jones to NE 30 for 8 yards (22-E.Campbell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(1:59) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%
(10:46) 47-R.Patterson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 86%
(3:42) 47-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%
(12:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NE 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-21-A.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 52 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%
(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 6-M.Washington INTERCEPTED by 15-M.Mapu at NE 42. 15-M.Mapu to MIA 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 35 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 71%
(1:52) 36-A.Borregales 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 28 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 84%
(:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NE 37 for -9 yards (97-M.Williams).
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%
(6:15) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:58) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NYG 23, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 31 for 8 yards (2-J.Thomas; 89-B.Spann-Ford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%
(1:09) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(14:17) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NYG 19, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(12:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to DAL 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 18 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 77%
(8:30) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:46) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DAL 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 34 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton; 49-C.Board). PENALTY on DAL-19-R.Flournoy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 30.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%
(10:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 44-C.Skattebo [90-S.Thomas].
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(5:41) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%
(14:17) 17-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 32 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 79%
(2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 64 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(2:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to DAL 47 for 11 yards (22-A.Phillips). Penalty on NYG-22-A.Phillips, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 27%
(10:31) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to KC 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 56%
(9:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 62 yards to PHI 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:36) 10-B.Mann punts 60 yards to KC 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-N.Remigio to KC 35 for 17 yards (83-K.Granson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 KC 4th & 13 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 53%
(5:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 19 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 58%
(11:48) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:36) 10-B.Mann punts 70 yards to KC 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-N.Remigio to KC 31 for 25 yards (54-J.Trotter).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 47%
(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to PHI 24 for 18 yards (24-A.Mukuba) [53-Z.Baun].
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 56%
(:02) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(13:00) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 35 for -1 yards (98-J.Carter, 3-N.Smith). FUMBLES (3-N.Smith), and recovers at KC 35.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%
(11:33) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(10:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to PHI 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson. PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at PHI 19.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(6:15) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%
(14:18) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to PHI 10 for 3 yards (98-J.Carter; 32-R.Blankenship). PHI-90-J.Davis was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(7:53) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:09) 14-M.Araiza punts 69 yards to PHI 2, Center-41-J.Winchester. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 16 for 14 yards (41-J.Winchester).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 68 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 54%
(4:32) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to KC 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 30Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 80%
(4:51) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%
(2:18) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 91%
(13:42) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle to PIT 19 for 2 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%
(12:09) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:48) 3-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to SEA 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Horton to SEA 30 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.80 EPp(convert) 71% p(FG) 35%
(7:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to PIT 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:25) 3-C.Waitman punts 60 yards to SEA 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Horton to SEA 48 for 22 yards (28-M.Killebrew).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 82%
(3:41) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 51-N.Herbig (97-Ca.Heyward) at PIT 38. 51-N.Herbig to SEA 21 for 41 yards (40-R.Ouzts; 88-A.Barner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 28%
(:27) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 60%
(11:18) 3-C.Waitman punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to PIT 39, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 28%
(1:41) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%
(12:51) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 85%
(7:54) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 68 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 30%
(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin to SEA 46 for 22 yards (39-T.Okada).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 46 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 18. 8-C.Bryant to SEA 46 for 28 yards (54-Z.Frazier).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 55 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to PIT 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%
(13:13) 19-B.Grupe 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NO 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (28-D.Luter).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%
(11:28) 32-K.Kroeger punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 16 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:32) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to SF 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%
(11:27) 18-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:17) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to SF 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 9-S.Moore ran ob at SF 19 for 1 yard.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 13 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(6:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NO 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 31 for 9 yards (48-T.Bethune). PENALTY on NO-27-I.Yiadom, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 26.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 92%
(9:10) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler scrambles left end to SF 18 for 3 yards (53-D.Winters).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 85%
(3:24) 18-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 48 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%
(4:41) 7-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to NO 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 90 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:12) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to NO 49, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-13-V.Jones.
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Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 45 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 50%
(2:47) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to NO 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 58 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(1:03) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 34 for -8 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at NO 33, recovered by NO-51-C.Ruiz at NO 27.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%
(3:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:40) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to TB 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
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Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to HOU 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 30 for 16 yards (81-R.Miller).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 42%
(:38) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.
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Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to HOU 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-81-R.Miller.
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Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(11:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(8:11) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to TB 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
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Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to HOU 35, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel to HOU 33 for -2 yards (29-C.Izien).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(4:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to TB 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-K.Johnson to TB 21 for 6 yards (35-J.Hansen).
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Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%
(1:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(11:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins.
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Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 44%
(6:23) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 43-J.Johnson, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by HOU-84-J.Watson at TB 36. 84-J.Watson to TB 35 for 1 yard (26-K.Merriweather).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 73%
(5:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 71 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to HOU 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at TB 26 for 53 yards (26-K.Merriweather).
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Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 68 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 38%
(1:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to TB 47 for 15 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson).
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Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 74%
(10:30) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (23-T.Amos).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(8:17) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to GB 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 0-M.Golden to GB 4 for -2 yards (35-P.Butler).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:08) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to GB 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-K.Nixon to GB 24 for 3 yards (39-J.Reaves).
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Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to WAS 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 14 yards (27-K.Oladapo). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 30.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%
(12:30) 10-T.Way punts 35 yards to GB 8, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-18-T.Owens.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 74%
(4:32) 16-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to WAS 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to WAS 43 for 24 yards (33-E.Williams; 83-S.Williams).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 57%
(:19) 16-M.Gay 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%
(12:00) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(6:40) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 56%
(5:12) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to GB 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-K.Nixon to GB 18 for no gain (35-P.Butler). PENALTY on GB-36-K.Hadden, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at GB 18.
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Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(3:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to WAS 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to 50 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 54%
(2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 40 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(7:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Lane (25-K.Nixon).
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Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 62%
(6:47) 17-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%
(1:56) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 67 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 1-D.Samuel.
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