Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 34

(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy (27-T.Tampa).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EP