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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CLE
12.2%
BAL
87.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.222 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.350 vs Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.018 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 16
–
BAL 31
Projected margin: BAL by 15 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CLE

Mike Hall Jr. DT Out Knee
Jack Conklin T Questionable Eye
Quinshon Judkins RB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

BAL

Patrick Ricard FB Out Calf
Isaiah Likely TE Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 17
–
BAL 41

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:10 FG BAL (3:10) 33-T.Loop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CLE 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 11:17 TD BAL (11:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 16-T.Wallace for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 9
  • Q2 00:33 FG CLE (:33) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – BAL 10
  • Q3 12:29 FG BAL (12:29) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined. CLE 3 – BAL 13
  • Q3 10:13 TD BAL (10:13) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 81-D.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – BAL 19
  • Q3 05:08 TD CLE (5:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 19-C.Tillman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – BAL 20
  • Q4 13:31 TD BAL (13:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-D.Walker for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BAL 26
  • Q4 08:33 TD BAL (8:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 40 for -7 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], RECOVERED by BAL-0-R.Smith at BAL 37. 0-R.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 10 – BAL 33
  • Q4 04:48 TD BAL (4:48) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BAL 40
  • Q4 01:55 TD CLE (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 22-D.Sampson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – BAL 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:51) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to BAL 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to CLE 49 for 23 yards (5-R.Jenkins).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (3:10) 33-T.Loop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-I.Bond to CLE 28 for no gain (38-K.Martin).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by BAL-21-S.Kane at CLE 29. 21-S.Kane to CLE 24 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (8:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to BAL 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-9-G.Delpit.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:56) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:53) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 4, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 16-I.Bond.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%

    (:33) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:10) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (12:29) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 99%

    (10:13) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 81-D.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (5:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 19-C.Tillman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%

    (8:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 40 for -7 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], RECOVERED by BAL-0-R.Smith at BAL 37. 0-R.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy (27-T.Tampa).