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Cleveland Browns

0-2 HC Kevin Stefanski
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Baltimore Ravens

1-1 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CLE
13.1%
BAL
86.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.222 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.350 vs Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.018 EPA/dropback
  • CLE defense: -0.020 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 16 9–23
–
BAL 31 24–38
Projected margin: BAL by 15 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

CLE

Mike Hall Jr. DT Out Knee
Jack Conklin T Questionable Eye
Quinshon Judkins RB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

BAL

Patrick Ricard FB Out Calf
Isaiah Likely TE Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 17
–
BAL 41

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:10 FG BAL (3:10) 33-T.Loop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CLE 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 11:17 TD BAL (11:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 16-T.Wallace for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 9
  • Q2 00:33 FG CLE (:33) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – BAL 10
  • Q3 12:29 FG BAL (12:29) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined. CLE 3 – BAL 13
  • Q3 10:13 TD BAL (10:13) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 81-D.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – BAL 19
  • Q3 05:08 TD CLE (5:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 19-C.Tillman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – BAL 20
  • Q4 13:31 TD BAL (13:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-D.Walker for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BAL 26
  • Q4 08:33 TD BAL (8:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 40 for -7 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], RECOVERED by BAL-0-R.Smith at BAL 37. 0-R.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 10 – BAL 33
  • Q4 04:48 TD BAL (4:48) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BAL 40
  • Q4 01:55 TD CLE (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 22-D.Sampson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – BAL 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:51) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to BAL 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to CLE 49 for 23 yards (5-R.Jenkins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (3:10) 33-T.Loop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-I.Bond to CLE 28 for no gain (38-K.Martin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by BAL-21-S.Kane at CLE 29. 21-S.Kane to CLE 24 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (8:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to BAL 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-9-G.Delpit.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:56) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:53) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 4, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 16-I.Bond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%

    (:33) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:10) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (12:29) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 99%

    (10:13) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 81-D.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (5:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 19-C.Tillman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%

    (8:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 40 for -7 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], RECOVERED by BAL-0-R.Smith at BAL 37. 0-R.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy (27-T.Tampa).

    See the full breakdown →