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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model