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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 91

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 16-I.Bond.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.65 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 91, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 48, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP