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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model