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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 40 for -7 yards (95-T.Robinson). FUMBLES (95-T.Robinson) [95-T.Robinson], RECOVERED by BAL-0-R.Smith at BAL 37. 0-R.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.34 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP