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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.04 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP