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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to BAL 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to CLE 49 for 23 yards (5-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model