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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 33-T.Loop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.01 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model