Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-50-R.Sunahara, RECOVERED by BAL-21-S.Kane at CLE 29. 21-S.Kane to CLE 24 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.78 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model