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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model