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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PHI
58.1%
KC
41.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.108 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.169 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
KC 20
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

PHI

Dallas Goedert TE Out Knee
Will Shipley RB Out Oblique
Cameron Williams T Out Shoulder
Tanner McKee QB Questionable Thumb

KC

Jalen Royals WR Out Knee
Xavier Worthy WR Doubtful Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 20
–
KC 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:51 TD PHI (:51) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 11:48 FG KC (11:48) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. PHI 7 – KC 3
  • Q2 02:53 TD KC (2:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – KC 9
  • Q2 00:02 FG PHI (:02) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 10 – KC 10
  • Q3 11:33 FG PHI (11:33) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 13 – KC 10
  • Q4 07:53 TD PHI (7:53) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – KC 10
  • Q4 03:07 TD KC (3:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – KC 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 27%

    (10:31) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to KC 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 62 yards to PHI 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:36) 10-B.Mann punts 60 yards to KC 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-N.Remigio to KC 35 for 17 yards (83-K.Granson).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 53%

    (5:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 19 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 58%

    (11:48) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:36) 10-B.Mann punts 70 yards to KC 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-N.Remigio to KC 31 for 25 yards (54-J.Trotter).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 47%

    (6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to PHI 24 for 18 yards (24-A.Mukuba) [53-Z.Baun].

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 56%

    (:02) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:00) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 35 for -1 yards (98-J.Carter, 3-N.Smith). FUMBLES (3-N.Smith), and recovers at KC 35.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%

    (11:33) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to PHI 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson. PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at PHI 19.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:15) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (14:18) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to PHI 10 for 3 yards (98-J.Carter; 32-R.Blankenship). PHI-90-J.Davis was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (7:53) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:09) 14-M.Araiza punts 69 yards to PHI 2, Center-41-J.Winchester. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 16 for 14 yards (41-J.Winchester).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:32) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to KC 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.