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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model