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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to KC 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP