Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to PHI 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson. PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at PHI 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.15 EP
55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model