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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to PHI 10 for 3 yards (98-J.Carter; 32-R.Blankenship). PHI-90-J.Davis was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.09 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model