Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(8:36) 10-B.Mann punts 60 yards to KC 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-N.Remigio to KC 35 for 17 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.03 EP
60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model