Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(6:15) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model