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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 10-B.Mann punts 70 yards to KC 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-N.Remigio to KC 31 for 25 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model