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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.45 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model