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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 84

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 62 yards to PHI 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP