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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 23 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 17-J.Allen right end to NYJ 36 for 7 yards (44-J.Sherwood). PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 36.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.76 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model