4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

BUF
64.0%
NYJ
36.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.248 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 27
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: BUF by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

BUF

Ed Oliver DT Out Ankle
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Hamstring
Tre'Davious White CB Questionable Groin
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Quadricep
Jordan Hancock S Questionable Shoulder

NYJ

Josh Reynolds WR Out Hamstring
Kene Nwangwu RB Out Hamstring
Jay Tufele DT Out Illness
Michael Carter II CB Questionable Shoulder
Mason Taylor TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 30
–
NYJ 10

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:33 TD BUF (7:33) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 05:04 FG BUF (5:04) 15-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. BUF 10 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 14:06 FG BUF (14:06) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game. BUF 13 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 09:00 TD BUF (9:00) 4-J.Cook left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 04:25 FG NYJ (4:25) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. BUF 20 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 09:04 FG BUF (9:04) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. BUF 23 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) 18-E.Moore right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-8-A.Cisco was injured during the play. BUF 29 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 03:30 TD NYJ (3:30) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – NYJ 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:37) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 19 for 9 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball; 51-F.Mauigoa).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 88%

    (10:25) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right tackle to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (11-J.Johnson; 51-F.Mauigoa).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (5:04) 15-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:41) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 74%

    (14:06) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 27 for 6 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball; 26-I.Oliver).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 78%

    (4:25) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 39%

    (:55) 16-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to NYJ 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-I.Williams. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%

    (:17) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (9:04) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (7:04) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 21 for no gain (37-Q.Stiggers).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 52%

    (3:14) 17-J.Allen right end to NYJ 36 for 7 yards (44-J.Sherwood). PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 36.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 39 for 7 yards (26-I.Oliver).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:10) 16-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NYJ 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 28%

    (9:48) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 82-A.Smith to BUF 45 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 28%

    (8:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:50) 16-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 46 for 11 yards (41-R.Gilliam; 42-D.Williams).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 39%

    (6:03) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 32-I.Davis to BUF 42 for 6 yards (98-T.Sanders).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.