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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 72

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 21 for no gain (37-Q.Stiggers).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP