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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 5

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.33 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model