Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 55

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

(2:41) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.83 EP
75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model